Thursday, June 23, 2011

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Crude oil futures traded bearish during the initial hours of trading on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) Thursday losing a notable change. Profit taking was seen in sync with Nymex crude oil that also slipped to trade in red terrain.  

July crude oil at New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) ended at USD 94.28 [-1.13] a barrel.
MCX crude oil July contract traded at Rs 4,247 [-36.00] a barrel. Far month August and September contracts traded at Rs 4,297 [-36.00] and at Rs 4,341 [-38.00] a barrel respectively.

Base metals displayed bearish sentiment during the opening hours of trading on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) Thursday losing in tandem with LME base metals. LME prices came under pressure after China made heavy selling amid softening global sentiment.

Aluminium June contract traded at Rs 113.05 per kg, down Re 0.40 at 10:27 AM IST and opened the session at Rs 113.50 per kg. It so far moved between Rs 113.20- 113.00 per kg. Total volume so far recorded at 120 lots. 

Copper June contract traded at Rs 402.20 per kg, down Rs 2.25 at 10:28 AM IST and traded in the range of Rs 403.10- 401.60 per kg. Total volumes so far recorded 5,418 lots.

Lead June contract currently traded at Rs 112.25/kg, down Re 0.90. The session opened at Rs 112.75 per kg and so far fluctuated in the range of Rs 112.80- 112.00 per kg. Total volumes recorded 1,350 lots.
Zinc June contract traded at Rs 99.30, down Re 0.60 and traded between Rs 99.60- 99.20 per kg. Total volumes recorded 775 lots. 

Gold futures traded slightly down on opening trading of Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) Thursday trade, while silver continued to move south on weak global sentiment. Appreciating dollar pressurized prices of bullion though safe haven investment in gold is supporting its prices. Demand for the white metal in domestic markets is also reported poor. Overseas gold and silver in London spot respectively traded at USD 1,554.60/oz, down 0.25 and USD 36.25/oz, up 0.03.

MCX most active August contract at Rs 22,702, down Rs 34 and so far moved between Rs 22,720- 22,588/10gm. Contract volume was 1,786 lots.

MCX gold mini most active July contract traded at Rs 22,536/10 gm, down Rs 33 and fluctuated between Rs 22,550- 22,510/10gm. Volume was 2,213 lots.

Silver July contract dropped Rs 425 at Rs 54,213/kg at 10:51 AM IST and so far made intra-day high and low of Rs 54,550- 54,123/kg so far. Volume so far was 3,816 lots. 

MCX silver mini most traded June contract shed Rs 420 at Rs 54,231/kg and traded between Rs 54,505- 54,150/kg. Volume recorded 7,530 lots.  

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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Zinc Updates

Zinc June contract offered at Rs 101.10 per kg, up Re 0.60 and traded between Rs 101.20- 100.30 per kg. Total volume recorded so far 8,622 lots. 
Yesterday zinc updates as traded with the positive node and settled 1.03% up at 101.55 as China’s Central Bank announced after the new CPI in the afternoon it will raise the deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions by 0.5%, which was under expectation. In this context, LME zinc prices edged up.
The US Commerce Department released that retail sales for May slid 0.2% from April, better than the forecast of a 0.4% decrease. The US dollar index moved around 74.2, pushing up LME zinc prices to close higher at USD 2,276/mt, up USD 38/mt.
Trading Ideas for zinc updates :
Zinc trading range is 99.8-102.5.
Zinc yesterday ended higher after China’s Central Bank raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%
Zinc looks to take support at 100.70 and resistance at 102.
Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down1180 by 476 tonnes.

SHFE 1108 zinc contract prices should fluctuate between RMB 17,300-17,600/mt today, with spot discounts expanding to negative RMB 200-250/mt. In yesterday's trading session zinc has touched the low of 100.3 after opening at 100.55, and finally settled at 101.55. For today's session market is looking to take support at 100.7, a break below could see a test of 99.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 102, a move above could see prices testing 102.5.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Gold Updates

The Gold Market may be updated temporarily turning down to sideways as the funds may shift as allocations may flow into other products.   The Indian Wedding Season has ended and the Gold Market may simply consolidate at these levels for now.  Fitch's ratings had warned the US that any potential default may take the AAA rating down. 

The US economy is fragile and any poor ratings, reports or further stalling on its recovery is bullish for Gold.  We also still have potential unrest globally and a terrorist organization out there to caution us to stay alert and be ready for anything.  The Gold Market does not always go up, but it certainly moves in times of dour circumstances.  While we may stay in this range for a while, it is precautionary to many events.  We use Gold as a hedge against inflation.   We use it to counter market crashes.  We rely on it through the ages and will need to continue to do so!

The August Gold market updated and  reached a high this week of $1555.00 and a low of $1531.80.  I am in a very bullish mode until the GCQ11 should penetrate $1529.00.  The current point of control or comfort zone may be $1542.10.   We have rolled to the August Gold !  This market is coiling and may break out soon!   Those who hold long positions may want to trail stops to protect any accumulated profits or prevent losses.  

While I am long term bullish this market, it is essential to have a trading plan with worst-case scenarios in mind.  Once you accept the risk of the trade, then all you need do is follow the plan.  Intra-day trading, we do bracket our trades with precise stops.  The use of stops, while prohibitive may allow an account take smaller losses during some very large market moves.  To live to trade another day!  

The use of options with futures positions and/or option strategies may again keep the risk at a specific level. Now we may find the market potentially could climb to $1596.00 or much higher this or next year.  Some analysts are forecasting $2000.00.   Gold Updates is still a Safe-Haven market that seems to hold value during most economic conditions.